APR 20 2012

Fritz Zwickey

Scenario Planning

The scenario planning approach of Fritz Zwickey (see http://www.swemorph.com/pdf/gma.pdf ) is worth considering. In his approach, you start with the objective/goal/output and work backwards towards its “atomic” components (attributes). By fleshing out full sets of attributes, you can then move forward and develop possible, alternative objectives/goals/outputs based on fuller sets of attributes. (see http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newCT_03.htm ).

APR 20 2012

Herman Kahn

Nuclear weapon, Scenario Planning

Modern scenario planning starts with Herman Kahn. Kahn’s work on MAD (mutually assured destruction due to nuclear war) in the 1950’s led to ideas/innovations such as “duck and cover” and fallout shelters (based on his future scenarios of the world after an all-out nuclear war). Although these concepts seem a bit weird and almost bizarrely…

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