This project is in progress.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has five core missions. One of these is to “ensure resilience to disasters.” This project, to describe potential flood control mitigations for New York City and develop portable, scalable methods for deciding among options and alternatives, supports that mission in a manner that is responsive both to an immediate localized need and potentially transferable to other low-lying communities – domestically and internationally. This research concentrates on Manhattan, with elevations as low as 3 feet. The goal is to assess realistically the probabilities of future extreme events (i.e., floods, wind storms, hurricanes) in New York City and to estimate the consequences of using risk and decision analysis tools. Using parametric analysis (along with sensitivity tools), it will demonstrate the cost effectiveness of various forms and levels of flood protection. A model will be designed to create satisficing strategies to allocate investments intended to counter floods’ impacts on New York City. In addition, the model will be developed so that it will have the potential to be extended to allocate investments intended to counter floods’ impacts in other U.S. low elevation, densely populated locales. This project will provide a tool for sound analytical guidance to decision makers regarding the most effective way to obtain maximum flood control impact from a given funding level. This tool is not a replacement for or a supplement to HAZUS; rather it offers novel features on a platform that is compatible with HAZUS.
A link to Plan NYC’s report, “A Stronger, More Resilient New York” follows: http://nytelecom.vo.llnwd.net/o15/agencies/sirr/SIRR_singles_Lo_res.pdf
A link to NYC Hurricane Evacuation zones follows: http://maps.nyc.gov/hurricane/ .
The following map is courtesy of Climate Central. It shows impact zones of various sea-rise levels.