Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs is a potential example of political maneuvering within a kleptocratic framework. Political announcements in kleptocracies often serve as signals for insiders to exploit opportunities for personal gain. Changes in policies, especially for those with advance notice, can create openings for corrupt practices. For example, kleptocratic elites in Russia (“the Russian oligarchs”) have managed to thrive despite sanctions, leveraging global financial systems to protect and grow their wealth. These dynamics highlight how kleptocracies manipulate political events to consolidate power and enrich their networks. Large trades by elected and appointed officials and other insiders this week in advance of the announcement should be scrutinized.

Political Connections and the Informativeness of Insider Trades on JSTOR documents insider trading that occurred up to 30 days in advance of TARP during the 2007-9 financial crisis and just prior to the bank bailout in October 2008.