Using the regression methodology of Ray Fair (“The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1978), I estimate a 46.42% +/- 2.54 McCain share in the Obama-McCain race. This method doesn’t address social acceptability bias or attempt to estimate the changes in the distribution of voters. I…
For civil suits, a major point of jury research is leveraging settlements; for prosecutions (and, infrequently, major civil suits, especially class actions), jury selection. Civil trial attorneys have tremendous interest in jury behavior, not for reasons of influencing juries, but in order to encourage settlements and minimize resultant settlement severities. About 100 million criminal and…
According to the April 2002 report, “High School Graduation Rates in the United States,” the U.S. high school graduation rate for the class of 1998 was 71%. The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reported a national high school completion rate of 86% (graduations plus GED completions) for the class of 1998. Current Population Survey…
Current McCain-Obama polls are increasingly widening in favor of Obama. An infrequently discussed topic concerning this polling is the contention that a potentially significant portion of those potential voters who say they’ll vote for Obama won’t. An important (unanswered) question is, “How large is this effect?” A potential method for measuring this “Bradley effect” (also…
The bailout is not a one-shot solution. It is a palliative regulatory attempt that is necessarily hasty in order to prevent or, at least, curtail a contagion of gambler’s ruin that could potentially cascade through all sectors of the world economy rather than a definitive cure.
Sunday was “Pulpit Freedom Sunday,” an event that was part of an Alliance Defense Fund project (See “Two O.C. pastors challenge IRS rules from the pulpit,” September 29, 2008, Los Angeles Times online). Participating clergy across the U.S., including at least one in Orange County, openly preached in support or opposition to candidates for political…
Albeit, this bailout plan is imperfect. Any Congressional incumbent that voted against it, however, is at peril of not being re-elected. Congress needs to read and listen. Remember the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. A broader world view is needed to have the foresight to pass this legislation.
This is the Zimbabwean $100 billion note as of July 19, 2008 ( source www.tomchao.com ). At that time, its value was about U.S. $1. It’s a symbol of the printing of fiat currency gone mad. Even with the bailout, the U.S. is nowhere near such madness, but significantly increasing the money supply will fuel…
The federal government is proposing to buttress the commercial and investment banking sectors with $700 billion in loans. Mr. Bernanke, a scholar of the Great Depression of 1929, and his colleagues seek to prevent a recurrence of that most disastrous economic event of the 20th century. Combined with prior bail-outs, the total bill for their…
Someone asked, “Can I self insure the group life insurance for my small (400 employees) employer?” I answered, “See private letter ruling 199921036 (Its url is www.irs.treas.gov/pub/irs-wd/9921036.pdf . ) A self insured death benefit is life insurance for federal tax purposes. Given your current number of lives insured, however, it makes little sense to self…